We don’t have reliable betting odds going back to the early days of Oscars ceremonies (this year marks the 93rd Academy Awards), but rest assured that nothing like this has ever happened in the modern history of the awards. If you take these probabilities at face value, the chances of these five recent upsets all happening is a measly 0.2 percent. Here’s what the past 11 ceremonies look like in a chart, with the betting favorite on the left and the ultimate winner on the right: All graphics via The Ringer But Parasite, with a roughly 37 percent chance, broke through, continuing a mind-boggling run of Oscars upsets. I broke this trend down a year ago, just days before Parasite’s win over a field that included 1917, which came into the night as a solid favorite, with betting odds that implied a win probability of 62 percent. That includes true shockers like Spotlight and Moonlight, modest upsets like The Shape of Water and Green Book, and last year’s delightful Parasite win. But since 2016, there have been five straight upsets. Now it’s almost impossible.įrom 2001 through 2015, the betting favorite for the award going into the night ultimately came home victorious every year except 2005 (when Million Dollar Baby toppled The Aviator) and 2006 (when Crash upset Brokeback Mountain). The Academy Award for Best Picture used to be easy to predict.
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